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    Assessment of the effectiveness of risk management strategies in petrol production: A case study of Baiji Refinery
    (İstanbul Gedik Üniversitesi, 2024) Al-shandah, Haneen Mohammed Mahdi; Gümüş, Tuğbay Burçin
    Baiji Petroleum Refinery holds significant importance as a facility dedicated to refining petroleum products, serving as the primary energy source for both domestic and industrial consumption in Iraq. Refineries play a crucial role in contributing to economic growth on a global scale. Operating as intricate and multifaceted systems, they undertake high-risk, multi-phase operations. Over the past three decades, evidence-based documentation of major accidents in refineries worldwide indicates substantial financial losses, reaching billions of US dollars. These accidents, often catastrophic, result in disruptions to refinery operations, causing production loss, asset and environmental damage, as well as fatalities and injuries. Despite the severity of these incidents, existing literature underscores the insufficiency of robust risk assessment and effective risk management approaches in promptly identifying and evaluating major accident risks to prevent or mitigate their escalation. Hence, there is a critical need to reassess petroleum refinery risk management through the development of a more reliable, adaptable, and holistic risk modeling framework for investigating major accident risks. This thesis introduces a proactive framework for advanced risk management to analyze and mitigate disruption risks in petroleum refinery operations. Through this research, various risk elements and their attributes that can interact and cause disruptions in Petroleum in Baiji Refinery operations were identified and analyzed to determine their criticality levels. The study reveals that the convergent impact of interactions between these risk elements and their attributes can lead to operational disruptions. The Fuzzy Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) methodology applied in oil refineries involves a comprehensive approach to assess and manage potential failures and their consequences. It integrates fuzzy logic to handle uncertainties associated with failure modes and their impacts on refinery operations. This methodology considers imprecise and incomplete information, providing a more realistic representation of risk. Through linguistic terms and fuzzy sets, it accommodates subjective judgments and expert opinions. Fuzzy FMEA in oil refineries facilitates a nuanced understanding of failure scenarios, enabling a proactive and adaptive risk management strategy to enhance the overall resilience and safety of refinery processes. The analysis results, serving as a threshold value, can guide risk assessors and decision-makers in mitigating disruption risks in operations. The decision strategies formulated in this thesis, based on a comprehensive literature review and expert contributions, contribute valuable insights to the field of petroleum refinery operations risk management. The evaluation and ranking of risk elements and their attributes provide crucial risk information for duty-holders and decision-makers, aiding in prioritizing resources for managing the most critical attributes of risk elements. In summary, the methodologies proposed in this thesis can be tailored as a quantitative risk assessment tool for risk managers and decision analysts in the petroleum refining industry, particularly in scenarios where available information for risk analysis may be vague or incomplete.