Development of deep learning approaches for drought forecasting: a comparative study in a cold and semi-arid region
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2025
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Springer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
Drought is an intricate natural disaster that substantially menace the world. Its exact forecasting has a remarkable impact in several parts such as food production, business, industry, etc. In this study, in order to assess the drought procedure in Mahabad River basin, the temporal meteorological reconnaissance drought index (RDIMRB) in four diverse time scales including 3, 6, 9, and 12-month are computed using 576 monthly climatic datasets recorded from Sep 1974 to Aug 2022. To predict the time series RDIMRB, different standalone deep neural network (DNN) models including LSTM, GRU, Bi-directional LSTM (Bi-LSTM), and Bi-directional GRU (Bi-GRU) with the sequence-to-one regression module of forecasting (seq2one) are developed. For sake of this aim, the first 70% of data (395 months) and the last 30% of data (169 months) chronologically are used in the calibration and validation parts, respectively, to feed in the models development process. So as to achieve the most advantageous models’ structure, a lot of scenarios are adopted by tuning the meant meta-parameters including NHU (number of hidden units), SAF (state activation function), and P-rate (learning dropout rate). According to the performance assessment criteria, total learnable parameters (TLP) criterion, and comparison plots, the Bi-GRU model is verified as the most satisfactory model, and best results are obtained in RDIMRB-12. It under the epitome meant meta-parameters achieved (i.e., NHU = 120, P-rate = 0.5, and softsign as the suitable SAF) results in the RMSE, MBE, NSE, PBIAS, and R2 of 0.17, 0.011, 0.92, -2.02%, and 0.86, respectively, nonetheless for the GRU model are gotten 0.64, 0.071, 0.23, 17.97%, and 0.65, respectively.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Deep Neural Network Models, Mahabad River Basin, Reconnaissance Drought İndex, Time Series Prediction, TLP Criterion
Kaynak
Earth Science Informatics
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
18
Sayı
1
